A new normal? Arkansas rice hit with fourth consecutive year of hot, dry harvest weather

LITTLE ROCK — Jarrod Hardke says, “It’s not an illusion — harvest weather has changed, and it doesn’t like us.”
Hardke, extension rice agronomist for the University of Arkansas Division of Agriculture, said for the fourth consecutive year, Arkansas rice has seen a harvest window of abnormally hot, dry weather that left much of the crop drying down quicker than it could be harvested.
“When we harvest rice once it’s too dry, the dry kernel becomes more brittle and prone to breaking,” Hardke said. “These brittle kernels will inevitably lead to poor milling yields and costly deductions for growers.”
2022 and 2023 saw milling yields that were not terrible, but not great, Hardke said. 2024 is where things really took a turn.
“In 2024 we had near-record pace of planting, which led to a crop that was ready dramatically early,” Hardke said. “It dried quickly and our harvest pace couldn’t keep up. Then storm systems off of hurricanes came through and hit 30 percent of rice left in the field, making 2024 one of the worst milling yields in recent memory.”
While last year was definitely an improvement, milling yields were still disappointing due to high temperatures that lasted well into September. But 2026 has brough constant, record-breaking heat that never gave rice much of a chance, he said.
“The rice is cooking out in the field. When it was time to harvest, we had been running 100-plus every day and 75 or higher at night. Even rice cut at optimal grain moisture isn’t milling well,” Hardke said. “We had oppressive, non-stop heat.”

Blast from the past? 

Hardke said although the state has seen this level of heat before, the game has changed when it comes to rice harvest in Arkansas.
“We’ve never put a rice crop through this before. Yes, it’s been hot before, but that doesn’t make things equal,” he said. “1980 is the most relatable year in the past half-century. When you look at a comparison of the daily highs and lows from 1980 and 2026, they are spookily similar.”
However, Hardke said in addition to overall higher nighttime temperatures in 2026, harvest timing has trended earlier in recent years, making this year’s fall heat more problematic than for the 1980 crop.
“This year we had over half of our crop harvested by Sept. 6,” Hardke said. “In the ‘80s, we had just started some harvest in September. We didn’t have mature rice going through these temperatures ever. 
“The game has changed and so have the conditions the crop is going through,” he said. “We must accept we’re working with a different deck of cards today than we were the last time we played a game like this, so the rules have to change.”

“In the past 40 years we may have had a year like 2026 once every ten years,” Hardke said. “This is not normal for us.
“Is this just a small band of time, or are we shifting towards something more consistent? After four years in a row, you have to start wondering.”
In terms of planning ahead, he said planting dates could hold the answer. Data suggests that shifting to a later planting date may help rice growers during harvest. But, as with everything, it isn’t that simple.
“Our planting date data the past several years has started to tell a different story than it has historically,” he said, noting that crops planted in late March used to be the highest yielding.
“In the past several years we’ve seen early April into mid-April planting date yields more on par with the early windows. In our Northeast Arkansas trials, we’ve seen optimum yield in mid-April planting dates,” he said.
Hardke said the data is suggesting that shifting to later planting may help growers out come harvest time. However, economics and spring weather do not usually cooperate.
“Ideally, we need to go back to a way to spread planting dates out and lean towards later planting,” he said. “But with how tough our spring weather has been, if you don’t take advantage of a planting widow, you don’t know when you’ll be able to plant again.”
Hardke reiterated that the agronomic advice is to spread out rice planting windows and lean towards later planting. But above all, hope for a cooler fall in 2027.

To learn about extension programs in Arkansas, contact your local Cooperative Extension Service agent or visit uaex.uada.edu. Follow us on Facebook and Instagram. To learn more about the Division of Agriculture, visit uada.edu. To learn more about ag and food research in Arkansas, visit the Arkansas Agricultural Experiment Station at aaes.uada.edu.