USDA releases first crop production report since September; Arkansas sees sizable shifts in corn, rice

LITTLE ROCK — After more than a month of statistical silence from the U.S. Department of Agriculture due to the federal shutdown, the agency released its monthly Crop Production report, showing expected declines in rice and soybean yield.

GAINING GROUND — While rice and soybean acreage saw declines in Arkansas, corn acres expanded substantially in 2025. (Division of Agriculture image.)

Scott Stiles, extension agriculture economist for the University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture, said that although some in the agriculture industry expressed concern that the monthlong pause might skew data that both producers and markets depend on, USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Survey said they had surveyed nearly 6,700 participants nationwide, compared to about 5,800 last year. Stiles said that 170 Arkansans participated in surveys for the Nov. 14 report.

“NASS also indicated their enumerators visited the fields in October and early November, despite the shutdown,” Stiles said. “The point is, there is no reason to believe that the November yield estimates are any less — or more — reliable than in previous years.” 

Rice
The average U.S. rice yield fell from the September USDA estimate of 7,559 pounds per acre to 7,506 pounds per acre. This reflected per-acre yields falling by 50 pounds in Arkansas, and as much as 100 pounds per acre in Louisiana, Mississippi and Missouri. While Arkansas’ rice yields declined only slightly, the reduction of rice acreage in the state, from 1.43 million harvested acres in 2024 to 1.25 million acres in 2025, made a sizable impact in production, falling from more than 109.4 million hundredweight to an estimated 92.6 hundredweight this year.

Jarrod Hardke, extension rice agronomist for the Division of Agriculture, said the state will likely see a further downward revision in production.
“While shifts for rice were minor from September to November, I expected the rice yield to be reduced further than the 50 pounds reflected in the report,” Hardke said. “I wouldn't be surprised to see another 100-pound reduction in the final January report to a state average of 7,300 pounds, or 162 bushels per acre.”

Soybeans
Arkansas’ estimated soybean yield fell by two bushels per acre between September and November to 54 bushels. The state’s overall 2025 soybean production estimate fell from a projected 143.9 million bushels in September to about 138.7 million bushels in November. This represents a decline of more than 16 percent from 2024’s 166.1 million bushels.

Jeremy Ross, extension soybean agronomist for the Division of Agriculture, said many growers he spoke with throughout the season said their yields were average to below average for the year, and that he believed the final yield average will fall another one to two bushels per acre. Nationally, USDA projects 4.25 billion bushels for production, a drop of about 121 million bushels from 2024.
Corn

Arkansas growers went in strong for corn acreage in 2025, planting 810,000 acres of the grain, an increase of 310,000 acres from the previous year. USDA’s estimated average yield increased modestly between the September and November Crop Production reports, growing from 178 bushels per acre to 179. Overall production is estimated at 141.4 million bushels for 2025, an increase of more than 51 million bushels from 2024.

Jason Kelley, extension wheat and feed grains agronomist for the Division of Agriculture, said the report was unsurprising, well within the five- to 10-year average.

Cotton
Stiles’ one bone of contention with the November Crop Production report, he said, was the record cotton yield forecast.

NASS pegged the Arkansas cotton yield at 1,491 pounds,” Stiles said. “That surpasses last year's record of 1,341 pounds. Given the wide span we planted the 2025 crop in, with much planted after mid-May, and the fact some areas went 60 days without any significant rainfall this summer, the record yield forecast is unexpected.”

Zachary Treadway, extension cotton and peanut agronomist for the Division of Agriculture, said he was skeptical regarding the USDA estimate.

“I have not talked to a single producer who said their yields were better than last year,” Treadway said. “A few producers told me their yields were about the same as last year, while most producers indicated a yield decrease.

“There were too many factors working against this crop for me to believe that we exceeded last year's yield,” he said, noting that Arkansas experienced “excessive rain during planting that pushed planting into June, and then hot, dry weather, including hot nights, during peak bloom. I expect that number to come down.”

To learn about extension programs in Arkansas, contact your local Cooperative Extension Service agent or visit www.uaex.uada.edu. Follow us on X and Instagram at @AR_Extension. To learn more about Division of Agriculture research, visit the Arkansas Agricultural Experiment Station website: https://aaes.uada.edu/. Follow on X at @ArkAgResearch. To learn more about the Division of Agriculture, visit https://uada.edu/. Follow us on X at @AgInArk.